朱老师区块链

Don't seal the planet, all data is gone, speed up the response! #新手成长营 $BTC

Welcome to the Euro Star Planet! Hello everyone, this is Teacher Zhu. Not chasing trends, not making calls, focusing on macro logic + project research + on-chain real data. In Euro Star Planet, I mainly share: 🧠 Bull and bear cycles and market structure analysis 🔍 In-depth breakdown of potential projects 📊 On-chain data + sentiment analysis ⚠️ Risk warnings, more important than making money If you also: ✔ Don't like mindless bullish calls ✔ Want to see long-term logic instead of tenfold gains in a day ✔ Hope to survive longer in this market Currently, Euro Star Planet is just getting started, and we are open to KOLs and VIP users. We can follow each other and evolve together 🤝 👉 Friends who have already followed, drop a comment in the section, and I will definitely follow back! $BTC

Tonight, old Powell will conclude the FOMC, and it's highly likely that there will be no interest rate cuts, which the market should already know and have digested. Then there are the earnings reports from several giants on the 30th, which are currently expected to be favorable, and the market should have digested this as well, since it has already surged violently. Furthermore, oil prices have returned to 100, and inflation data isn't coming down, so Q2 data is likely to be tough, unless Waller goes full dove! Then in May, there’s a big event, which is NVIDIA's earnings report. Currently, the year-on-year estimate for Q1 25 is also doubling. Whether the market can continue depends on whether NVIDIA can hold up and deliver a satisfactory report! #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 $BTC $ETH $QQQ

Vance's positions are all ETFs, indices, and buying US stock indices is really helpless. OKX wallet can buy $QQQ Invitation code: BC3000

Bai Bing was investigated for tax evasion Beijing News Ruiping, why do Internet celebrities always remember to eat and not beat. In the same way, why do people always liquidate positions in the currency circle, or do some people have high leverage contracts? Human nature is difficult to fight, so it is recommended that you read the I Ching when you have time. $BTC

Those who missed out on BTC should take a look at Buffett's two failures. Today, I received a question from a fan who wrote a long message. He mentioned a term called "value speculation" and stated that the first point of his personal view is to cut losses, as one may encounter a Waterloo, which could involve a "black swan" event, such as Buffett's two Waterloo incidents with Berkshire's textile factory and the Kraft Heinz project. I can briefly review these two events. The textile factory business was purchased by Buffett in 1960 because it was cheap and was a typical case of buying undervalued good companies. However, the textile industry was already crushed by low-cost manufacturing in Asia at that time. Even though Buffett kept injecting capital, it continued to incur losses, so Buffett said it was a "bad decision" because the industry was a poor one with no economic moat. Kraft Heinz was a consumer goods company created by Buffett and 3G Capital in 2015. This is an industry with an economic moat and is mature, but Buffett felt it was overpriced. These two instances are among Buffett's more failed investment cases. Personally, I think this is very normal; no one can always make the right investment decisions throughout their life. It's impossible; we all grow from "failure." These two cases taught Buffett not to touch poor industries in the future and to be more cautious about industry moats. Everyone, whether investing or speculating, grows their own "value perspective" from failure. I've been in the game for 8 years, watching Bitcoin rise from a few thousand to 100k. I missed out before, so I cherish Bitcoin even more now. If I had the current "understanding," I would have bet everything back then, even going into debt to buy Bitcoin. Isn't this all experience gained through "lessons"? No one is a prophet, and no one can traverse the past, so when I emphasize holding onto Bitcoin, it's not because of a "value investment perspective" but because previous "lessons" have shaped this perspective! Regarding your point about preserving capital, this is indeed very important. One should always cut losses, but after being in the industry for a long time, one generally knows where Bitcoin is reasonably priced and where it is likely to be "high" and can sell a bit. So after I finish a round of buying and holding, I generally won't incur losses. However, buying during a downturn will definitely involve some losses, so my principle is not to invest all my money but to ensure basic living expenses and then work hard to earn money outside! Because the understanding above tells me that as long as I hold for a long time, I will definitely make a profit, so I remain calm inside! However, if a "black swan" event occurs, such as quantum computers being widely applied and Bitcoin starting to plummet, then cutting losses should be considered; it doesn't mean one has to hold on for dear life! In response to your point about looking at indicators and tools to find key positions for buying and selling, that is essentially doing swing trading, which is entirely based on personal preference. If you enjoy doing it and can make money through constant practice, that's fine. I don't like frequent trading because I believe the probability of making mistakes is very high during the process, and if you make one mistake, the cost may be greater than getting it right ten times! Here, through a mathematical probability formula, let me clarify: assuming your probability of being right once is as high as 80%, with only a 20% chance of being wrong, that is already top-notch. However, after 10 tries, the probability of getting them all right is only 10%. In other words, you have a 90% chance of making a mistake in 10 tries, so minimizing operations is the best way for ordinary people! As for the valuation of a company or project, the high or low valuation can currently only be assessed through comparison. For companies of the same type, there are comparisons. For example, for web3 lending platforms, I would compare AAVE and morpho, looking at their TVL relative to market cap, and buy the one that is higher. Finally, he said to buy low and sell high, and I think that's fine. As long as you make money, you can sell; there's no rule that says you have to hold forever. Everyone has their own style. I don't know if 12.4 is the peak; I just saw that the situation in November was not good and sold part of it in November, not completely. I also don't know if 60k is the bottom; I just bought from 8 to 6 during the downturn. Did I make money this time? I definitely didn't, because if I had sold all at 12.4k, I would have made the most profit. If I bought all at 6, I would have made the most profit. The key is that I don't know when the peak or bottom is. What if it drops to 50k or 40k later, right? So I rarely make trades. Even when I do, I don't operate with 100% of my capital because I'm uncertain; I can only use a portion of my capital for trading. The benefit is lower risk, but the downside is lower returns. Because you can't expect low risk and high returns; the risk-reward ratio and win rate are always two opposing indicators! So, at this point, it actually goes back to the human aspect. People always want to earn more and lose less; greed and fear can never be overcome. Therefore, I choose not to fight against human nature; if I earn less, then I earn less. Don't worry about temporary gains and losses; if you can earn, be grateful! Finally, let me share my recent insights: gains and losses come from the same source, happiness and anger come from the same source, success and failure come from the same source, and gain and loss are of the same origin. When you gain a little, you will lose a little in another area. So just try to do your best, and let your own state of mind become a refined person, achieving unity of knowledge and action. Wishing: everyone can become their best self! $BTC $ETH

Is this a hooliganism, does Microsoft buy out seniority, does it mean that 35 years old has to work for 35 years, 40 years old to work for 30 years, 68 years old to work for 2 years, and now there are many layoffs in major American factories, will it really become an AI ghost story? #新手成长营 $BTC

Don't go up, I haven't bought it all 😂 yet$BTC #Strategy披露4月btc收益率6.2%

"Trillion scam"? This article about shorting Bitcoin made 5 fatal mistakes (2) The fourth knife: "Buyers run out"? Repeatedly slapped in the face in history Then there is another point in the article: there are no new buyers, whether it is retail investors, ETFs, or DATs, it will not continue to increase in the future, this is the last blood transfusion! In fact, there is such a statement in every round, that is, there will be no more leeks to take over in the future, because the author has a hidden assumption: the market grows linearly! No one can predict who the next batch of buyers will be, because the industry is developing and advancing, who would have thought that DeFi came out in 2016, when everyone said that the public chain was saturated and there was no new story. NFTs appeared in 2019, ETFs came out in 2022, and so on. The fifth knife: a scam with a high price-to-sales ratio At the end of the article, it is said that the price-to-sales ratio of encryption far exceeds the traditional, of course, here it is thrown to compare Bitcoin to a company, then the same is still compared with fiat currency, the scale of legal currency dollars is hundreds of trillions of dollars, it is the same, and it is not too critical here. Finally, I think the biggest problem with the article is not the enumerated data, but a fundamental "misunderstanding", thinking that the price is the result, in the monetary system, the price itself is determined by consensus, the state stipulates that this banknote is worth 100, then he is 100, everyone thinks that gold is worth 4,000, then he is worth 4,000. In the same way, I can also stipulate with my good friend that if a stone of love is worth 10w, then he is worth 10w. This article seems to be denying Bitcoin, but if you bring him into gold and fiat, he is also denying gold and fiat, and even the human credit system. There are some things, you can see the problem by taking it by analogy, Bitcoin will return to zero, there is only one condition, everyone does not believe in it, as long as two people believe in its value, then it will not return to zero! If you find this article valuable, you can turn it on to someone who has recently been scared by "Bitcoin is going to zero". Some logic, if you don't take it apart, you will really be deceived. #新手成长营 $BTC $ETH

"Trillion scam"? This article about shorting Bitcoin made 5 fatal mistakes (1) A recent article swiped the screen in the circle - the tragic deduction of the old OG Yang Haipo in the circle - cryptocurrency has come to an end. The full text is logically rigorous, the data is detailed, and the deduction is complete, and it can even be said that after reading it, it is difficult not to waver. Its core conclusion is simple: Bitcoin is a system with no cash flow, constant consumption, and dependence on new money transfusions, and is bound to collapse eventually. Sounds familiar? If you stay in this industry long enough, you will find that those who short Bitcoin and say that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme will appear once in every cycle. In 2014, some people said this, in 2018, some people said this, in 2022, some people said this, and now it is 2026, and some people still say this. But every time it seems that Bitcoin has resisted the pressure, and every round of rebound is very fierce. So here, I won't "refute" first, let's disassemble it first, let's see what is wrong with this set of impeccable logic? First knife: He treats Bitcoin and the entire industry as a company This is the most hidden but fatal problem in the whole article. The author uses a very familiar analysis method: using the total industry revenue, the total cost of the industry, plus cash flow and consumption, and finally concludes that this is a negative sum system without income! Sounds reasonable, right? But here's the thing – Bitcoin is not a company at all, and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole is not a company. The author begins by taking gold as an example, saying that gold has half of the physical consumption demand and the maintenance cost is 0. If Bitcoin has mining costs, doesn't gold have mining costs? Gold itself does not have its own cash flow capacity, and sovereign currencies do not have cash flow capacity and profitability. Whether it is sovereign currency or gold, it is actually a product of consensus, or a monetary system. Gold is a consensus for thousands of years, in ancient times, people would also use shells as a medium of exchange, and the monetary system is constrained by state coercion, a paper ticket is printed on 100 yuan, does not mean that the paper is really worth 100 yuan, but is stipulated by the state coercion, and there are also some sovereign countries' currencies that have lost their credibility and depreciated rapidly, such as the Zimbabwe currency. Therefore, Bitcoin is a consensus system asset, and companies can be valued with DCF, but currency and consensus assets should be valued with: consensus, scarcity, liquidity, and trust network. Therefore, it is wrong to use the "company model" on the top-level architecture to deny the "monetary system", just like using a thermometer to measure length. The second knife: "negative sum system"? This is a false proposition There is a very "explosive" formula in the article: net inflow = historical consumption + margin balance, historical consumption is the electricity of mining, the money earned by industry practitioners, the income of the exchange, and the margin is the stablecoin + coin issuance balance in the system. Through a large number of valuation calculations, he came to the conclusion that Bitcoin is a negative-sum game, and it is estimated that many people are basically persuaded when they see this. But there is a fatal sneak peek here: he treats all costs as "consumption". Then let's look at it from another angle: gold mining requires electricity, machines, and labor, gold-related practitioners need wages, gold storage requires money, and gold trading also needs money. The same is true for the legal currency system, currency printing, circulation, bank staff are salaries, and the legal currency system is also a negative sum system. But the reality is that these systems do not collapse, but constitute the underlying structure of the world. So what's the problem? The problem is the cost ≠ consumption! It is precisely because of these costs that someone is paying for it that makes him valuable. For example, the cost of legal currency is the printing of currency, the circulation of banks, and the military support of the national army, so that legal currency can maintain its value, and these costs are the process of turning currency into a "trust asset"! The essence of Bitcoin mining electricity consumption is to convert electricity into tamper-proof security, and he is also minting credit. In the same way, AI is now turning electricity into tokens, and tokens also have value. The third knife: "no external income"? It's outdated There is a very critical judgment in the article: there is no external cash flow in the crypto world! At present, the volume of stablecoins in the crypto industry is increasing, and with the passage of the Stablecoin Act, it is expected that more and more stablecoins will be on the chain in the future, which I estimated at the time should be trillions of dollars, and it is currently more than 300 billion, which is also double compared to 2021. And this round also has ETFs and DAT companies to join, and the number is increasing, not only BTC ETFs, but also ETH, SOL, SUI, and even DOGE ETFs. And Trump also announced a 401k plan, which allows American pensions to partially participate in cryptocurrencies. These money are all money from traditional finance, so external cash flow is actually growing, and the growth rate is not slow! He also said these parts in the article, but his point of view is that the follow-up can no longer be followed-up, so we can only say that we will wait and see! After all, this kind of content is a personal opinion, not a factual basis! The planet editor can only put 2100 words, see chapter 2 #这届嘉年华我记住了这句话 $BTC $ETH

The double dilemma of top short-term genius traders Today, let's talk about the dilemma of top short-term traders, why do I talk about this topic, or yesterday a fan came to me and chatted with me for a long time, saying that he recognized my set more, didn't like short-term trading very much, and thought that kind of gambling.  Then I also answered some of my opinions, and I will tell you why I have been in the circle for 7-8 years, and there will be a lot of excellent short-term traders every year, who can earn tens of millions of dollars, but there has never been a main reason why I can cross the cycle and achieve a larger scale.  First of all, the first point is that the short term is a game, you lose what I earn, like a Colosseum, 1,000 people in a Colosseum 1v1, until the final winner is selected, short-term trading is the same, can be hundreds of times in a short period of time, thousands of times, are all "crawled out of the pile of dead people", you have to temper a set of your own strategy, but you must be in the right place and the right time, when you polish this set of strategy, the market is just in line with your current strategy, and your luck must be good enough, You have the potential to stand out!  But there is a little bit of cruelty here, the market will not be spotless, the market is constantly changing, this period may be Trump affecting the market, some time ago it may be institutions, and it may be a change in the macro environment, so the market is unpredictable. And how did a top trader who climbed out during this period break through? He polished his "martial arts secrets" thousands of times in this "specific market", and this set of eighteen palms of the dragon has brought him hundreds or even thousands of times the income in a short period of time, normal people will feel that their martial arts are powerful, it is the market that cooperates with me, or I can understand the K-line, and my self-confidence is bursting, thinking that I am a genius trader.  But with the changes in the market, this martial arts may not adapt to the future market, so you have to change, but this is actually very difficult, when you earn a hundred times a thousand times in a period of time, you have absolute faith in your martial arts secrets. He won't admit that there is something wrong with his strategy, just imagine if it were you, would you easily change your "peerless martial arts secrets"?  This is actually consistent with the principle described in the book "The Innovator's Dilemma", the innovator company has reached the top of the industry through edge innovation, but once it grows into a giant, it can no longer go to the edge innovation, because he has performance requirements, he has income requirements, he cannot give up his current income and not earn, to edge innovation to gain an uncertainty. What really limits you is not your ability, but your past success.  So this is the first dilemma of top traders, when you can no longer use the previous martial arts cheats to make money in the market, you keep losing money, you will fall into self-doubt, then the best way at this time is to keep your income and rest. So the best way to get to this stage is to say I've made enough, I'm off the table, I'm not playing. This requires this person to have top cognition, self-control, not greedy, ordinary people can hardly do it, just think about it, if it were you, can you do it? The point that most people can do is that I go to the casino and make 10 million from 1000, and then I lose 5 million, and I don't play anymore, then he can probably make 5 million. But this is actually difficult, 10% of people can do it, it's amazing, because 90% of them will want to win back the 5 million they lost.  Let's talk about the second dilemma, when you earn a certain asset scale, such as more than 100 million (crypto market), your capital scale will be targeted, your set of play will be studied by other institutions, they must eat the small fish as a big fish, you can refer to Yi Lihua some time ago, he has more than a billion yuan of funds, only with 2 times leverage, and he was targeted, which we have analyzed before.  Therefore, the only way to overcome the second dilemma is to turn your assets and transactions into institutional types, use team thinking to recreate strategies that are in line with the market and constantly adjust, and it is possible to break through the second dilemma. But at this time, you still have to face the killing of institutions. So no matter what you do, you always have to keep playing with higher-dimensional players, there is no rule between hunter and prey, just see who survives in the end!  Finally, why is it difficult for short-term masters to cross the cycle? Because they are limited by 5 things at the same time: - The nature of the game (someone must die) - Market change (strategy failure) - Cognitive lock-in (unwilling to change) - Capital size (capacity ceiling) - Opponent evolution (reverse harvested) Finally, I am giving a cruel truth, short-term is more difficult than gambling, because gambling you know you are gambling, but short-term will give you the illusion that you are in control of everything! The people who can really wear through the cycle are not the ones who are the best at trading, but the people who can control risks and desires, and the market does not reward the smartest people, only the people who live the longest! #新手成长营 $BTC $ETH