Lei06
Lei06
Crypto Market Participants & Web3 Content Creators. Study on-chain data, track hot narratives, and make transactions that you can understand. I believe that good content requires patience just like good positions.
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【$244 million in total contract liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours, mainly long positions】
On May 14, CoinAnk data showed that in the past 24 hours, the total contract liquidations in the cryptocurrency market reached $244 million, with $161 million in long position liquidations and $83.706 million in short position liquidations. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $81.8259 million, and for ETH it was $48.9829 million.
JPMorgan significantly increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q1, with BlackRock's IBIT holdings growing by approximately $162 million
On May 14, JPMorgan disclosed a substantial increase in its Bitcoin ETF holdings in the first quarter of 2026. The 13F filing shows that its holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT grew by 174%, rising from about 3 million shares to 8.3 million shares, adding approximately $162 million in value. Despite Bitcoin prices dropping over 22% in Q1 and overall net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, JPMorgan actively expanded its Bitcoin ETF exposure.
In addition to IBIT, JPMorgan also significantly increased its holdings in Fidelity's FBTC by 450%, Bitwise's BITB by nearly 900%, and boosted its Bitcoin futures ETF BITO exposure by over 3000%. Regarding altcoins, JPMorgan made its first purchase of the Solana staking ETF (BSOL), increased Ethereum ETF exposure, but completely exited XRP ETF holdings. It also rotated its crypto-related stocks by reducing Coinbase and increasing positions in mining and payment stocks such as MARA and Core Scientific. $BTC
If Laote hasn't left, Putin is coming. Such a dense visit to China?
On May 14, according to Global Times citing TASS and Reuters, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated at a press conference on the 14th that Russian President Putin is about to visit China,
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and the related preparations are ready.
According to reports, when asked if the date of Putin's visit to China has been confirmed, Peskov responded, "We will announce the specific date soon. The visit is being prepared.
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It can be said that all preparations, including the final touches, have been completed. The visit will take place very soon."
Opened a long position on BILL.
The reason is not the price, but the OI.
BILL current price $0.1910, basically flat today in UTC at -0.13%. 24h high $0.1995, 24h low $0.1600.
Price is at $0.191, 5% below the high of $0.1995, and has climbed back nearly 20% from the low of $0.160.
Now looking at today's 10-hour OI movement:
$13.37M → $13.20M → $13.35M → $13.55M → $13.71M → $13.93M → $14.59M → $14.78M → $15.33M → $15.56M (latest)
10 hours ago: $13.37M.
Now: $15.56M.
Increased by $2.19M, +16.4%.
And it’s a one-sided upward trend with no pullbacks—accelerating since 14:00, last 3 hours $13.93M → $14.59M → $15.33M → $15.56M, hitting new highs every hour.
Price hasn’t moved much, but OI keeps rising.
In plain terms: more and more money is entering to bet on BILL—but both sides are betting, so the price hasn’t moved yet. The spring is being compressed.
Now looking at the long ratio:
53.62% → 51.63% → 51.63% → 51.79% → 51.79% → 50.24% → 50.24% → 51.06% → 51.06% → 50.55% (latest)
10 hours ago: 53.62% longs, 46.38% shorts.
Now: 50.55% longs, 49.45% shorts.
Compressed from 53% down to 50.5%—longs have been pushed from "slightly dominant" to "basically even".
This is not a collapse of longs, but a more balanced position between both sides—both longs and shorts are betting, no side clearly dominant.
Latest Taker: 0.980, slightly seller-dominant.
Putting these together, my logic is:
OI up 16.4% in 10 hours, one-sided upward, building positions all day.
Long ratio compressed from 53% to 50.5%, indicating new positions on both sides, no overcrowding.
Price rebounded from today’s low $0.160 to $0.191, structurally moving upward.
A 50/50 long-short structure means: once one side starts to clear out, without large opposing positions to absorb it—it will accelerate.
I choose long because: $0.160 low has support, OI is building, price is climbing, directionally favorable.
Entry: $0.190
Stop loss: $0.175 (breaks today’s low area structure)
Target 1: $0.200 (today’s high)
Target 2: $0.230-$0.240 (OI continues to pour in accelerating phase)
OI $15.56M is today’s 10-hour new high and still rising—the spring is still compressed, I went long, waiting for it to bounce. $BILL
This series has already covered ETH twice.
First article: The long position ratio climbed from 71.89% to 76.15%. The more it fell, the more they bought. I opened a short position at $2,265, with a stop loss at $2,325 and a target of $2,180.
Second article: ETH dropped to $2,242, and the long ratio remained unchanged for 10 hours—76% of people were holding on, their stop losses hadn’t triggered yet, saying that only breaking below $2,233 would be the start of a chain reaction.
Today is the third article.
ETH current price $2,253, UTC open $2,301, today UTC -2.09%. 24h high $2,306.6, 24h low $2,233.62.
Short position is open, entry at $2,265, now $2,253, direction is correct, target $2,180 not reached yet.
Now the key data for today.
Long ratio trend over the past 10 hours:
75.95% → 75.74% → 75.74% → 75.96% → 75.70% → 75.70% → 74.76% → 74.56% → 74.54% → 74.26% (latest)
It was 76.15% when the first article was written.
It was 75.84% in the last article, unchanged for 10 hours.
Today: 74.26%.
The long ratio has finally started to decline.
From the peak of 76.15% to today’s 74.26%, it dropped by 1.89 percentage points.
In plain terms: nearly 2% of the longs have gradually closed their positions or been stopped out during this period.
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But note: 74.26% is still an extremely crowded long position.
Out of 10 open accounts, 7.43 are still long ETH.
Some have exited, but most are still holding.
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Looking at OI, it has been steadily declining over these 10 hours:
$5.067B → $5.046B → $5.081B → $5.065B → $5.048B → $5.041B → $5.028B → $5.020B → $5.011B → $4.996B (latest)
OI dropped from $5.067B to $4.996B in 10 hours, shrinking by $0.071B.
And it’s a continuous one-sided decline, with only a slight rebound at 12:00, then immediately continuing downward.
OI shrinking + long ratio slowly declining + price falling—
All three happening simultaneously indicates it’s not new shorts entering, but longs gradually exiting.
They are not hitting stop losses all at once, but reducing positions bit by bit.
Funding rate: 0.0001, still neutral.
This is a key number tracked throughout this series—neutral funding rate means the cost of holding long positions is very low, so they can keep holding without being forced out by "funding fees."
This explains why the long ratio took nearly two days to drop from 76.15% to 74.26%: they weren’t forced out by costs, but slowly worn down by price.
Current situation:
From the moment the short was opened until today, ETH fell from $2,265 to $2,253, target $2,180, stop loss $2,325.
Long ratio ground down from 76.15% to 74.26%, nearly 2 points lost, but still at 74%.
OI shrinks one-sidedly, slowly bleeding out.
24h low $2,233.62 is the most critical line in this move—it hasn’t been broken yet.
This move is a "slow grind" structure. Not a violent crash, but gradually grinding down longs. From 76% to 74%, nearly 2 points lost, but still 74% remain. When they grind down to a certain critical point, or $2,233 breaks triggering concentrated stop losses, that will be the phase where shorts accelerate.
Not there yet.
Stop loss at $2,325 is holding, waiting for that line. $ETH
[A major whale stopped losses on a $79 million long position, with combined BTC and ETH positions losing $690,000]
On May 14, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, in the past hour, a major long whale on Hyperliquid completely closed out BTC and ETH long positions, including closing approximately 8,872 ETH, equivalent to about $22.04 million; and approximately 745.9 BTC, equivalent to about $59.28 million.
In this round of liquidation, the whale incurred a net loss of $690,000, with a total closed position size of $79.3 million. Address: 0x049bdc370620beab340b01072fa580fd57745e7d
13 hours ago I wrote: I opened a long position on LAB, entry at $6.10, stop loss at $5.40, target $7.50.
Today I’ll give the update first.
LAB current price $5.508, UTC open $5.605, UTC today -1.73%.
24h high: $6.682.
24h low: $5.367.
Good news first: after opening the position, LAB rose to $6.682 — the stop loss at $5.40 was not triggered, instead it went up first, the 24h high was +9.3% above the entry price, the long position was once in profit.
Then the bad news: after $6.682, LAB started to fall, dropping all the way to the 24h low of $5.367.
$5.367 is below the stop loss of $5.40.
The stop loss was hit.
Then it rebounded back to $5.508, and is currently here.
But what I want to write about today is not about winning or losing.
I want to talk about the 11:00 UTC candle.
10-hour OI movement:
$106.2M → $105.7M → $106.5M → $101.2M → $101.6M → $101.1M → $98.5M → $98.2M → $97.2M → $97.2M (latest)
Note the 4th period — from $106.5M directly down to $101.2M, OI evaporated by $5.3M within one hour.
That hour was 11:00 UTC, LAB price also sharply declined during that time.
Plainly put: during that hour, a large batch of positions exited — possibly stop losses triggered, possibly voluntary exits, but either way, $5.3M of OI disappeared in one hour, this is not normal fluctuation, someone was liquidating.
Then the short ratio over 10 periods:
67.13% → 67.13% → 67.33% → 67.33% → 67.26% → 67.26% → 66.63% → 66.63% → 65.93% → 65.11% (latest)
From the high of 67.33%, it dropped steadily to 65.11%.
Shorts are decreasing.
Price is falling, OI is shrinking, but shorts are also decreasing — this is not new shorts entering, but old shorts exiting.
Since the last peak at 65.01% mentioned in previous posts, this series has been saying: "65% shorts are fuel."
Today’s 65.11% shorts, after this pullback, some have taken profits and exited.
Putting these facts together:
OI dropped from the series’ high of $108.1M to today’s low of $96.5M (15:00 UTC low), then rebounded to $97.2M.
From the high to now, OI shrank by $10.9M, about 10% of positions exited.
Shorts fell from 65.01% to 65.11% — almost the same level, not a big decrease, most are still holding.
Price: last time I wrote $6.274, today’s 24h high $6.682, now $5.508.
The batch of 65% shorts that entered at $6.27 are now at $5.508 — they are in profit.
But they haven’t finished exiting yet. 65.11% is still an extremely crowded short position.
A word to my own trade:
Stop loss set at $5.40 was hit today.
Rising to $6.682 then falling to $5.367, this range exceeded the volatility I anticipated when setting the stop loss.
The logic behind this trade was not fundamentally wrong — OI above $100M and 65% crowded shorts, both conditions met, the directional call was correct (first rose to $6.682). But the pullback after $6.682 was bigger than the stop loss allowed.
The result: first right, then stopped out.
Not the best outcome, but not the worst — at least it didn’t reverse immediately after opening.
OI shrank from $108.1M to $97.2M, $10.9M of positions exited. 65.11% shorts remain, and this pullback has made them more confident. Next time LAB reverses, it will need a stronger reason than $6.682, or wait for these shorts to become overconfident again. $LAB
