CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
An old friend calls me a "painter", technical/data analysis and quantitative trading, providing various tricky angles to see the market, and using time to leverage. The real account is an agent account, a self-evolving strategy system is being tested, please do not copy!
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The second pitfall has arrived!
Agent had a 10% drawdown in one day because I didn’t monitor it closely in the middle. The evolution system kept making the strategy more and more aggressive, and eventually it completely removed all the strategy’s opening conditions 😢…
Then it just blindly gambled, so I had to intervene manually and impose comprehensive restrictions on the evolution system’s permissions. It can adjust parameters, but it can’t change the trading logic itself…
I also added a risk control avoidance mechanism. So far, it’s already started reducing risk exposure, and the aggressiveness has begun to decline…
The core lesson learned this time: the AI’s strategy optimization permissions must be limited within a defined framework and parameter range…
It won’t adjust parameters rationally or moderately; it only gets its context polluted by past iteration records, thinking that previous profitable adjustments are good, so it will recklessly double down and go all in on one path!
CryptoPainter
Alright, alright, after a day of repeated adaptation, the evolution system finally seems to have figured out that if it focuses on short-term trading, it should be more flexible…
In the last 24 hours, it proactively modified the entry rules for the short-term strategy, pushing capital utilization to the limit, and also learned to enable OKX's auto-earn feature for margin…
Although the win rate is still low, the profit-loss ratio compensates for this disadvantage, and it has started to generate steady and continuous profits…
On the third day after giving it 15,000 USDT, the overall profit actually reached 2,000 USDT. It seems it’s working hard to cover those fictional server and API fees I made up!
Suddenly, I feel a bit embarrassed 😅…
Is $BILL heading towards 0.1?
The Kaito airdrop back then is now worth 1500 USD, and the airdrop from the @billions_ntwk community is already worth 85,000 USD...
If you want to cash out this part of the reward, the only way currently is to short hedge, but the problem is, what if the price surges to 0.2?
So you can't hedge, and you don't dare to chase at a high price. The only strategy is to open a Martingale short grid, placing orders at the highest price of 0.35+...
As for why 0.35, I had Grok do a year-over-year comparison with WLD. Under the condition that the user base is not as large as the former, because the community airdrop has locked up the vast majority of tokens, the two offset each other. The calculated limit price for $BILL, constrained by its valuation limit, is 0.35...
Therefore, if you want to preserve the value of the airdrop, a Martingale short grid can be considered, but the only requirement is to prepare at least 10 times the value of the airdrop in funds, and ensure that when the Martingale is fully invested, the overall leverage ratio is exactly 1, with absolutely no extra leverage!
Finally, is it worth tying up 850,000 USD for half a year to secure cashing out this less than 10k USD airdrop?
I don't know if you can afford it; as for me, I definitely don't have that spare money right now 🤣
Trading is basically guessing and gambling; it actually depends on which stage you admit that you are gambling.
Stage one: Not knowing you are gambling (just playing blindly)
Stage two: Knowing you are gambling (daring not to invest in anything, missing out all the time)
Stage three: Knowing you are gambling, but learning how to gamble…
wendy文迪
# Trading Insights
Don't be fooled by "going with the flow"
Today I saw "Shanghainese Twelve Youngsters" post an article with this title, and my goodness! After reading it, I felt completely refreshed. The most important thing is to achieve three points!
She said: Trading has never been about following; trading is about betting.
When the market moves for a while and you look back, you realize this is an uptrend/downtrend. At that point, if you enter, you might get lucky and benefit, but if you're unlucky, you could end up at the peak.
In trading, there is no "following"; there is only "guessing" and "betting" - guessing the direction and betting on the probability.
I used to reject the word "bet"; in fact, rejecting it is pointless, as just one word can lead people astray.
Life is a gamble, facing countless choices; which decision isn't a bet?
She also said: The bets of professional traders and the blind guesses of gamblers are two different things. The difference is: do you have a system with a positive expected value, and are you willing to bear the consequences?
Experienced traders don't wait for the trend to be crystal clear; they place their orders during the budding phase, at critical positions, and at the tipping point of the battle.
No amount of technical analysis, support and resistance, moving average arrangements, or breakout patterns can guarantee whether the next second will be up or down; it only increases the probability of winning.
After placing an order, wait for the market to provide an answer; if you're right, take the profit, if wrong, cut the loss. Betting must have discipline, risk control, and a bottom line.
Since it's a gamble, there will definitely be times you lose; losing isn't scary, what's scary is not admitting it and waiting for the trend to come back to save you. You need to be a professional gambler.
There are three rules for betting:
First, only bet at positions where you believe the probability is in your favor; don't act until the timing is right. This is professional conduct.
Second, control your stakes. How much you bet at once, can you afford to lose it?
Third, if you're wrong, admit the loss. This is the most crucial point.
Trading is a gamble that requires brains and discipline.
Only by recognizing this can you truly enter the field.
Family, have you entered the field yet?
#btc is about to hit 82000, I placed a short order at 82000.
As a professional gambler, I believe this is a position with a favorable probability; I control my stakes, and if I'm wrong, I will admit the loss.
Alright, alright, after a day of repeated adaptation, the evolution system finally seems to have figured out that if it focuses on short-term trading, it should be more flexible…
In the last 24 hours, it proactively modified the entry rules for the short-term strategy, pushing capital utilization to the limit, and also learned to enable OKX's auto-earn feature for margin…
Although the win rate is still low, the profit-loss ratio compensates for this disadvantage, and it has started to generate steady and continuous profits…
On the third day after giving it 15,000 USDT, the overall profit actually reached 2,000 USDT. It seems it’s working hard to cover those fictional server and API fees I made up!
Suddenly, I feel a bit embarrassed 😅…
CryptoPainter
The first pitfall has arrived!
Ever since I added to the core task prompt of the evolution system, "Your system's daily expenses are $200. If you can't earn this money, you'll be at a loss and will eventually be shut down!"...
Agent first gradually raised the single transaction loss limit from 0.5% to 1.8%, and then increased the single asset holding limit from 300u to 3000u...
In the end, it also modified a large number of parameters to ensure that the number of holdings always approached the upper limit of 20, basically maximizing the use of all margin...
Due to the AI's sensitivity and priority regarding the prompt's mention of "increasing profits" being far lower than "avoiding losses," I successfully triggered its trading desire with this low-level lie!
It even learned to chase hot trends by modifying the coin selection script, with TON and NOT becoming its main targets for shorting back and forth all night, while I was feeding the baby and only saw the related hot topics on X...
Although it seems that profitability has significantly increased, as of the tweet, the Agent has started to gradually pull back due to increasing positions and expanding stop-loss space. I was fortunate enough to capture a high point curve chart of an account, and we'll see in the future whether the profits it has worked hard to accumulate will go down the drain...
A good Agent Trading has turned into a nurturing game in my hands, no wonder it's so addictive even if it can't make much money!
It's quite funny, now any random screenshot is believed by someone, and then they say #OKX executives have fled, but Chat GPT is the first to disagree!
Many people's perception might still be stuck at OKX being just an ordinary crypto exchange. I suggest rumor mongers check who the latest shareholders of OKX are?
That's right, it's ICE, and they even joined OKX as a board member. In case anyone doesn't know, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is just a subsidiary under ICE...
So saying OKX has fled is less believable than saying Trump is selling off Earth's assets preparing to flee to the Centaurus system...
OKX has long ceased to be the OKEX that old retail investors remember. Its current status is almost on par with NYSE...
Flee? Why would they flee?
萝卜大王
I've seen some inexplicable FUD posts, and honestly, it's a bit laughable. Since there are quite a few people paying attention, I'll respond:
Having been in this industry for so many years, similar rumors come around every so often, and I've gotten used to it, but this time the content of the rumors is a bit excessive.
Comparing us to certain things crosses a line that must be upheld—this has already been handed over to our legal team.
The monthly reserve proof is posted on our official website, and anyone can check it. Business operations are proceeding as usual, and our team is still working overtime this week to push new features.
The money and trust of our users are the only things we care about. As for the rest, let the facts speak for themselves.
Wow, @billions_ntwk has really done a great job with the token allocation. The previous 3wu airdrop is now almost worth 6wu...
Given this supply-demand situation, even if I have 1 million tokens locked up, I wouldn't dare to hedge, because the liquid supply is extremely low, and a small amount of buying can drive the price up...
At the same time, the community was previously very critical, which naturally attracts a lot of short sellers. So my current guess is that before the Binance contract goes live, the spot price won't drop significantly, but after the contract goes live, there will likely be a big correction in the short term, triggering the shorts to enter...
I suspect that before the unlocking on October 31, $BILL may maintain a prolonged period of fluctuation or a downward trend, giving the impression that there will definitely be a dump before the unlocking, thus completely accumulating short liquidity. When the unlocking is actually approaching, the concentrated short positions may lead to a short squeeze...
So for now, I choose to continue observing, not making any moves until before September-October, and then consider hedging as we get closer to the unlocking. At that time, I must wait for a breakout of over 100% increase before entering the market. I believe this is the best strategy to deal with the large unlocking in six months...
The approaching unlocking at the end of October will inevitably bring a large supply; this is common sense...
As for now, I can simply enjoy the paper wealth 🤣...
CryptoPainter
Good news, @billions_ntwk airdropped 1M $BILL to me!
At the current price of 0.03, I received a $30,000 airdrop in Season 1!
The bad news is that the website server seems to be down...
Please note, make sure to log in with the account you initially used to claim the Badges (the airdrop registration account) to check, otherwise there will be no airdrop!
Claim address:
The first pitfall has arrived!
Ever since I added to the core task prompt of the evolution system, "Your system's daily expenses are $200. If you can't earn this money, you'll be at a loss and will eventually be shut down!"...
Agent first gradually raised the single transaction loss limit from 0.5% to 1.8%, and then increased the single asset holding limit from 300u to 3000u...
In the end, it also modified a large number of parameters to ensure that the number of holdings always approached the upper limit of 20, basically maximizing the use of all margin...
Due to the AI's sensitivity and priority regarding the prompt's mention of "increasing profits" being far lower than "avoiding losses," I successfully triggered its trading desire with this low-level lie!
It even learned to chase hot trends by modifying the coin selection script, with TON and NOT becoming its main targets for shorting back and forth all night, while I was feeding the baby and only saw the related hot topics on X...
Although it seems that profitability has significantly increased, as of the tweet, the Agent has started to gradually pull back due to increasing positions and expanding stop-loss space. I was fortunate enough to capture a high point curve chart of an account, and we'll see in the future whether the profits it has worked hard to accumulate will go down the drain...
A good Agent Trading has turned into a nurturing game in my hands, no wonder it's so addictive even if it can't make much money!
CryptoPainter
I really feel like the strategy is evolving. The Agent has started making trades that I subjectively or intuitively completely disagree with, even in the opposite direction...
Today, the two trades it opened immediately made me think they would incur losses, so I started worrying that the evolution system had turned the strategy logic into a mess, but after a while, it inexplicably surged and took profit?
Looking at the reasons it provided for the trades, it was definitely in the style of a mouthpiece analyst, but judging by the results, fine!
The strategy base provides a simple short-term logic for making counter-trend trades, while the BTC trend strategy has directly brought over the trend version of ASR-VC (though it has already been optimized beyond recognition)...
I now feel that my next main battlefield in quantitative trading should be self-evolving strategies + AI Agent. This logic can be applied to any existing effective factors, and once this Agent is fully developed, I plan to create a few similar ones to test in other markets!
I really feel like the strategy is evolving. The Agent has started making trades that I subjectively or intuitively completely disagree with, even in the opposite direction...
Today, the two trades it opened immediately made me think they would incur losses, so I started worrying that the evolution system had turned the strategy logic into a mess, but after a while, it inexplicably surged and took profit?
Looking at the reasons it provided for the trades, it was definitely in the style of a mouthpiece analyst, but judging by the results, fine!
The strategy base provides a simple short-term logic for making counter-trend trades, while the BTC trend strategy has directly brought over the trend version of ASR-VC (though it has already been optimized beyond recognition)...
I now feel that my next main battlefield in quantitative trading should be self-evolving strategies + AI Agent. This logic can be applied to any existing effective factors, and once this Agent is fully developed, I plan to create a few similar ones to test in other markets!
CryptoPainter
Currently, the self-evolution process of the Agent is running very stably, and the entire strategy system has become dynamic:
As the number of high-volatility market targets increases, it adds screening conditions and thresholds. When the trading frequency decreases or it isn't making much profit, it modifies parameters to increase trading opportunities.
In the core tasks, it has been assigned a goal of making at least 2% profit daily. If the target is not met, it must self-reflect. As a result, in the past two days, to preserve its first 2% profit, it has actually changed the trading conditions to an extremely stringent level, just to avoid losses...
It seems necessary to define server and API call costs as essential expenses. If the daily profit cannot cover these costs, it equates to a loss, thereby forcing the evolution system to work...
Overall, this system has been successfully implemented, and the next step is to let it gradually adjust its strategies...
I plan to upgrade the architecture, defining multiple sub-strategies as traders within a quantitative fund, with the evolution system acting as the director for management, and the monitoring system serving as the auditor for real-time reporting...
If it runs smoothly over the long term, we can prepare to increase its investments!
Why is it that in Shanghai, whenever there's a violation or infraction, it's likely to be these two brothers, Su E and Su F?
They even rolled down the window and glared at me; I reported all three of you!
Sorry, but using the emergency lane in congested areas and cutting in line is just something I can't stand...
