福禄寿炒币版

Brothers keep asking me what the logic is behind buying altcoins? First, altcoins are only a small position; the large position is all in $BTC. This time I didn’t touch ETH or SOL. Secondly, altcoins have already dropped to very cost-effective levels (I of course know they could still drop another 99%), but some projects are seriously working, like $SUI. I participated in their event at the Hong Kong Carnival this time, and came back to build a position without hesitation; for the AI sector, I chose $VIRTUAL; for the meme sector, I chose PEPE; for decentralized exchanges, I chose ASTER. These are all projects I personally believe have potential and a future. When most people are playing the US stock market, I stick to the crypto circle; when most people lose faith in the bull market, I feel opportunities are quietly being born again; when everyone thinks the altcoin season is impossible, I’m still willing to try; choosing places with fewer people.

There is a viewpoint that the United States does not want Iranian oil to return normally to the global market. The longer the war drags on, the more Iranian production capacity is wasted, the tighter the global supply, the more stable oil prices become, and the more the U.S. benefits. After 2010, the shale revolution transformed the U.S. from the largest importer to a net exporter (normalized after 2020). Higher oil prices ($70–100 per barrel) are most beneficial to the U.S., as shale oil profits are high, the domestic energy industry thrives, and fiscal revenues increase. Moreover, most Iranian oil fields are old, high-pressure carbonate reservoirs. Once wells are shut down, formation pressure drops rapidly, causing water invasion, gas channeling, and asphalt deposition, making it extremely difficult to restore production capacity. Many wells become permanently abandoned. After the U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian exports fell from 2.1 million barrels per day to 500,000–600,000 barrels per day, a drop of over 70%. Storage capacity fills up in 12–22 days, forcing well shutdowns and production cuts. During the Iran-Iraq war, Iranian oil fields were bombed, blockaded, and shut down; it took 10 years post-war to recover to 60% of pre-war capacity, with many blocks permanently abandoned. If the conflict drags on for 3–5 years, Iran’s oil industry will degrade from world-class capacity to a regional wreck, with many oil fields permanently scrapped, no longer threatening U.S. oil price interests. Therefore, the U.S.’s optimal strategy is the current state: no large-scale ground war, no complete regime overthrow, no genuine negotiation to lift sanctions—just a low-intensity drag, slowly exhausting Iran’s oil and economy, causing Iran to permanently lose its oil bargaining power. What we see on the surface is always what others want you to see; behind it lies a complete chain of interests. #美伊交火：特朗普称停火仍有效

The most foolish sentence I saw in yesterday's comment section was: He only sees rise as bullish and fall as bearish. Why does it rise or fall? The essence of trading is to follow the trend. There are reasons for the market to rise and logic behind the fall; the price movement itself is the strongest signal. Following the trend is not mindless bandwagoning; it means respecting the current capital, sentiment, and trend choices, not going against the market or subjectively guessing the rise or fall. Seeing a rise as bullish respects the trend, seeing a fall as bearish shows respect for risk. Prediction is metaphysical; following the trend is the right path.

BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000 these days, but altcoins feel like restless newlyweds. The previously favored ONDO and NEAR have both rallied against the trend recently. Unfortunately, I didn't buy in. My altcoin holdings are small, only picking two with 1 million each. One of them, VIRTUAL, has also seen a good increase these days. The other is in the public chain sector and has been doing okay recently. I attended their event at the Hong Kong Carnival last month and feel the project has great potential. Still bullish on the upward trend, expecting strong financial luck in May. $ONDO $NEAR $VIRTUAL

Currently, Berkshire Hathaway's cash and short-term Treasury reserves total approximately $397.38 billion, with cash accounting for as much as 58.2% of total assets, setting a historical record high. Looking back, whenever Berkshire's cash ratio exceeded 30%, the following 1-2 years almost always saw a major crash in the US stock market or a systemic crisis. In 2000 it was the internet bubble, in 2007 the real estate and financial crisis, and in 2026 it is AI. A 58.2% all-time high cash position! This is a historically significant warning signal. Will the market crash? Unknown. When will the market crash? Unknown. Ordinary retail investors first need to reduce risk (large positions in crypto should only be in $BTC), secondly control position size (emulate Buffett's asset allocation), and finally wait for opportunities, patiently waiting for the market to return to rationality before bottom-fishing opportunities.

The offshore RMB (USD/CNH) has just broken above the 6.8 mark, reaching a new high since February 2023, appreciating about 2.6% year-to-date. Whether the decline will continue depends on the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire; if successful, it will continue to break below 6.75. The sharp drop in oil prices has eased inflation concerns, so the Federal Reserve has no need to persist with high interest rates. Tomorrow night, the strength of the US April non-farm payroll data will also affect the exchange rate. Holding USD is likely to continue losing, so go all in on $BTC!

May 6th was quite eventful. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi rushed to China to meet Wang Yi just before Trump's visit to China, clearly stating willingness to discuss peace and to open the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. On the same day, international oil prices dropped more than 10%, with both WTI and Brent crude falling significantly. The reason is simple: the US and Iran are close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding. Iran will stop uranium enrichment, the US will lift sanctions, and with China's help mediating peace, Iran also promised to ensure the security of the strait. The previous geopolitical tension eased, and the Middle East is gradually moving from turmoil toward peace. $BTC also followed the trend, rising to $82,000. Judging by this momentum, barring any surprises, a strong bullish trend is likely to begin. #BTC与美股同步创高：机构格局重写

Once a trend is established, it won't change easily. Currently, $BTC has three consecutive monthly gains. Of course, May has just begun, and it's quite important as it's a month for trend validation. I hope the trend continues. In a bear market, there are almost no three consecutive monthly gains, which is a typical structural signal of a shift from weak to strong, dominated by bulls. Core support level: strong support baseline at 73500. If it breaks below and closes under this level, the monthly trend will weaken directly, and I may reduce my spot holdings. Central defense level at 75000, a pullback to here is likely to stabilize, which is a safe zone for low buying. If it doesn't break, I won't look for a deep drop; hold the spot steady. If it stabilizes above 80000, the upward trend is likely to continue. I expect to break even in this trend and don't hope to make a profit. #BTC月线收官：年内最强月份

Many altcoins have dropped by 80%-90%, but this does not affect the ongoing large-scale unlocks; they may still drop by 80%-90% until they gradually fade into oblivion. If there is still a bull market, which altcoins can survive until the bull market?

The market's reaction to the US-Iran conflict has quickly shifted from panic to immunity in just a month or two, with US stocks hitting new highs, oil prices retreating, and gold not only failing to rise but actually falling. No one cares about a stalemate that can't escalate into a fight or reach an agreement! Trump's extreme pressure tactics have become a routine, repeatedly threatening, negotiating, and then threatening again. The market has seen through it; neither side can afford a full-scale war, the worst-case scenario has already been priced in, and what's left is just noise. The main focus of the market is not in the Middle East; expectations of Fed rate cuts, the AI boom, and the profits of tech giants are the core. Giants like Apple and Nvidia rely on internal growth, and the friction in the Middle East only affects oil and military industries, without shaking the overall market. Oil prices are hard to explode, inflation is controllable, and the US's own oil production is sufficient. Coupled with global reserves and OPEC's idle capacity, even if the Strait of Hormuz is turbulent, oil prices are unlikely to spiral out of control. Inflationary pressures are manageable, and expectations of rate hikes won't disrupt that. Fighting while negotiating has become the norm, with standoffs, proxy conflicts, and talks resuming after ceasefires expire. There is no full-scale war, nor has there been a complete breakdown in negotiations. The crisis has evolved into a daily backdrop, and funds have long since become numb.