CoinCircle 阿飞

Is the crypto industry a sunset industry? I originally thought Bitcoin at 60,000 was the bottom, until I saw the altcoins in this cycle, which are extremely disappointing. Not to mention doubling, liquidity has dried up to one-tenth of the original. Retail investors are adding funds at a much slower pace than the market is bleeding. Ethereum's malicious wash trading, long-short double kill, all indicate that we are in a sunset industry. Many people have lost everything and have nothing left. Ethereum will definitely catch up in this cycle! But it will be very volatile and wash out positions. When volume surges and prices plummet, holding positions doesn't decrease but increases, and retail investors' desire to go long becomes stronger. This will only cause you to be liquidated to the point of despair, losing the desire to go long. Then suddenly, it will jump two or three hundred points in a day, causing long positions to be liquidated and short positions to be liquidated as well. Bitcoin has dropped from over 120,000, with countless supports and resistances in between. I believe Bitcoin will not go to zero, but the possibility of reaching 120,000 is almost negligible $BTC #

So many spikes on the hourly chart 😂

Brothers, shorting ETH around 2140-2150 would be very profitable Unfortunately, I’m not doing short-term trades for now If you’re doing ultra-short-term trades, don’t follow me! Seriously

A $1000 lesson learned, mainland stock funds are not suitable for me 😂

Trading is lonely

Can BTC reach 70880? #超级事件周 #美CPI+PPI双超预期：通胀压力升级

#BTC四年周期 #恐慌贪婪指数 The severity of the primary market is unparalleled. VCs in the Web3 space are facing a dual dilemma of severe LP pressure and fundraising difficulties. The days of seed rounds with valuations in the tens of millions of dollars are long gone. Web3 companies are experiencing an unprecedented wave of layoffs, with no exceptions from the bottom-tier public chain development teams to the upper-tier DeFi and GameFi protocols, all undergoing downsizing and streamlining. The faith of industry practitioners is facing a severe test, as many once-ambitious tech professionals and market elites are leaving the Crypto space, shifting to what seems to be more certain fields like AI or other traditional tech sectors. This is a typical characteristic of a cycle bottom: capital withdrawal, bubble burst, elimination of poor projects, and cleansing of practitioners. For those well-versed in financial history, this is all too familiar. In 2019, it was precisely alongside the complete collapse of the ICO bubble, Bitcoin's prolonged painful sideways movement at the bottom, and the mass exit of practitioners that the market completed its final chip turnover. In financial markets, consensus is often used to be harvested, and the leap in wealth classes often comes from contrarian trading against extreme market emotions. Buffett's over-quoted saying, "I am greedy when others are fearful," holds extremely hardcore practical guidance in the current crypto market. Why is this year the best time for secondary market bottom fishing and primary market investment? From the perspective of cycle odds and win rates, when a large number of industry practitioners leave, primary market valuations are severely compressed, and the secondary market is neglected, the "bubble premium" of assets has been completely squeezed out. In 2019, those who, under the cold gaze of the market, dollar-cost averaged Bitcoin and Ethereum in the secondary market while capturing early DeFi protocols (like Uniswap, Aave, etc.) at extremely low valuations in the primary market ultimately became the biggest winners, earning thousands of times Alpha returns in the bull market of 2020 to 2021. The current market environment provides a perfect re-betting window: Alpha screening in the secondary market: liquidity exhaustion is actually the best litmus test. Projects that can still maintain core code updates, community activity, and possess real income models without strong market maker support are the core assets that will explode in the next cycle. At this time, collecting chips with extremely low time and capital costs has already released its downside risk through the previous prolonged decline. Primary market buyer's market: Due to fundraising difficulties, today's quality Web3 entrepreneurs no longer dare to ask for sky-high prices. Institutional investors have gained absolute bargaining power, allowing them to acquire several times more equity or token shares for the same amount of capital compared to the bull market. More importantly, teams that choose to start businesses and persist in such a harsh fundraising environment have resilience and delivery capabilities far exceeding those of speculative storytellers in the bull market. History does not simply repeat itself, but always follows similar rhythms. The end of macro geopolitical wars provides a breeding ground for a global risk appetite recovery; while the "2019-style" ice point within the industry offers an excellent asset pricing valley. The current crypto market is not lacking in value, but rather in the patience to discover value and the courage to act in despair. For professional fund managers, there is no need to overly concern themselves with short-term macro disturbances or temporary rebound heights. Recognizing the long-term logic brought by Bitcoin's "dual attributes," facing the current industry situation of liquidity cliffs, and taking over bloodied chips when pessimists exit is crucial. Those "smart money" that dare to sow in the "2019-style winter" of 2026 will surely reap the richest fruits in the subsequent new round of macro easing and technological innovation resonance super bull market.

Bitcoin has dropped 9% to $81,000, while Ether has slid 11%, but trading volume has surged by 85%. This turmoil suggests an emotional capitulation, often a precursor to a bottom. The seemingly ailing crypto market is cleansing excesses and brewing a rebirth. When fear looms, opportunities often begin to sprout.

$LTC The level of fear now is proportional to the level of greed later.