福禄寿炒币版

BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000 these days, but altcoins feel like restless newlyweds. The previously favored ONDO and NEAR have both rallied against the trend recently. Unfortunately, I didn't buy in. My altcoin holdings are small, only picking two with 1 million each. One of them, VIRTUAL, has also seen a good increase these days. The other is in the public chain sector and has been doing okay recently. I attended their event at the Hong Kong Carnival last month and feel the project has great potential. Still bullish on the upward trend, expecting strong financial luck in May. $ONDO $NEAR $VIRTUAL

Currently, Berkshire Hathaway's cash and short-term Treasury reserves total approximately $397.38 billion, with cash accounting for as much as 58.2% of total assets, setting a historical record high. Looking back, whenever Berkshire's cash ratio exceeded 30%, the following 1-2 years almost always saw a major crash in the US stock market or a systemic crisis. In 2000 it was the internet bubble, in 2007 the real estate and financial crisis, and in 2026 it is AI. A 58.2% all-time high cash position! This is a historically significant warning signal. Will the market crash? Unknown. When will the market crash? Unknown. Ordinary retail investors first need to reduce risk (large positions in crypto should only be in $BTC), secondly control position size (emulate Buffett's asset allocation), and finally wait for opportunities, patiently waiting for the market to return to rationality before bottom-fishing opportunities.

The offshore RMB (USD/CNH) has just broken above the 6.8 mark, reaching a new high since February 2023, appreciating about 2.6% year-to-date. Whether the decline will continue depends on the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire; if successful, it will continue to break below 6.75. The sharp drop in oil prices has eased inflation concerns, so the Federal Reserve has no need to persist with high interest rates. Tomorrow night, the strength of the US April non-farm payroll data will also affect the exchange rate. Holding USD is likely to continue losing, so go all in on $BTC!

May 6th was quite eventful. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi rushed to China to meet Wang Yi just before Trump's visit to China, clearly stating willingness to discuss peace and to open the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. On the same day, international oil prices dropped more than 10%, with both WTI and Brent crude falling significantly. The reason is simple: the US and Iran are close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding. Iran will stop uranium enrichment, the US will lift sanctions, and with China's help mediating peace, Iran also promised to ensure the security of the strait. The previous geopolitical tension eased, and the Middle East is gradually moving from turmoil toward peace. $BTC also followed the trend, rising to $82,000. Judging by this momentum, barring any surprises, a strong bullish trend is likely to begin. #BTC与美股同步创高：机构格局重写

Once a trend is established, it won't change easily. Currently, $BTC has three consecutive monthly gains. Of course, May has just begun, and it's quite important as it's a month for trend validation. I hope the trend continues. In a bear market, there are almost no three consecutive monthly gains, which is a typical structural signal of a shift from weak to strong, dominated by bulls. Core support level: strong support baseline at 73500. If it breaks below and closes under this level, the monthly trend will weaken directly, and I may reduce my spot holdings. Central defense level at 75000, a pullback to here is likely to stabilize, which is a safe zone for low buying. If it doesn't break, I won't look for a deep drop; hold the spot steady. If it stabilizes above 80000, the upward trend is likely to continue. I expect to break even in this trend and don't hope to make a profit. #BTC月线收官：年内最强月份

Many altcoins have dropped by 80%-90%, but this does not affect the ongoing large-scale unlocks; they may still drop by 80%-90% until they gradually fade into oblivion. If there is still a bull market, which altcoins can survive until the bull market?

The market's reaction to the US-Iran conflict has quickly shifted from panic to immunity in just a month or two, with US stocks hitting new highs, oil prices retreating, and gold not only failing to rise but actually falling. No one cares about a stalemate that can't escalate into a fight or reach an agreement! Trump's extreme pressure tactics have become a routine, repeatedly threatening, negotiating, and then threatening again. The market has seen through it; neither side can afford a full-scale war, the worst-case scenario has already been priced in, and what's left is just noise. The main focus of the market is not in the Middle East; expectations of Fed rate cuts, the AI boom, and the profits of tech giants are the core. Giants like Apple and Nvidia rely on internal growth, and the friction in the Middle East only affects oil and military industries, without shaking the overall market. Oil prices are hard to explode, inflation is controllable, and the US's own oil production is sufficient. Coupled with global reserves and OPEC's idle capacity, even if the Strait of Hormuz is turbulent, oil prices are unlikely to spiral out of control. Inflationary pressures are manageable, and expectations of rate hikes won't disrupt that. Fighting while negotiating has become the norm, with standoffs, proxy conflicts, and talks resuming after ceasefires expire. There is no full-scale war, nor has there been a complete breakdown in negotiations. The crisis has evolved into a daily backdrop, and funds have long since become numb.

Understanding trading and life amidst the ups and downs — Reflections on "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" Opening "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" feels like traveling back a hundred years, immersing oneself in early 20th century Wall Street, witnessing Jesse Livermore's journey from a novice trader to a legendary "stock operator" who experienced multiple bankruptcies and comebacks, ultimately concluding his life in solitude and regret. This book does not contain obscure trading formulas or empty motivational platitudes; it only presents the genuine insights that Livermore earned through a lifetime of blood and tears, revealing both the harsh truths of the trading market and the philosophical reflections on life that transcend trading itself. Reading it is both shocking and thought-provoking. Livermore's trading career is an epic filled with legends and regrets. Sensitive to numbers from a young age, he showcased his extraordinary talent and keen market insight, making his mark at a speculative firm in Boston at the age of 14, earning his first pot of gold with a meager capital. He accurately predicted market trends, capitalizing on bull markets to reap substantial profits, becoming a legend on Wall Street; yet, he also fell into despair multiple times due to greed, arrogance, and misjudgments about the market, plummeting from great heights to the depths of debt and near bankruptcy. The most moving aspect of the book is not his glory during peak times, but his courage to rise again after each failure, to review his mistakes, correct his understanding, and challenge the market once more. This resilience of "growing through setbacks and solidifying through fluctuations" is not only an essential quality for traders but also a lesson we all need to learn in our lives. The core wisdom of the book lies not in "how to make quick money," but in "how to control oneself and respect the market." Livermore shares from his own experience that the essence of trading is not to fight against the market, but to align with it; it is not about speculating based on luck, but about making money through understanding patterns. He emphasizes "going with the trend," believing that the market is always right, and the only thing that can be wrong is our own judgment and mindset. He warns us that "greed and fear are the enemies of trading"; many people lose money in the market not because they lack technical knowledge, but because they cannot control their desires — being insatiably greedy when making profits, always wanting to earn more, ultimately missing the opportunity to exit; panicking in losses, hastily cutting losses, which leads to a vicious cycle. This principle applies not only to stock trading but also to our lives: whether pursuing dreams, managing careers, or handling wealth and interpersonal relationships, excessive greed and fear will only lead us astray, resulting in nothing. After reading this book, I deeply realize that trading is never a gamble, but a practice. Livermore's life was a constant game against himself — against his own greed, against his own arrogance, against his own fears. He once said, "The reason I make big money is not because I have a high accuracy rate, but because I dare to place big bets at the right time." Behind this statement lies not only extraordinary courage but also a respect for the market and a clear self-awareness. He understood that there is no absolute correctness in trading, only relative rationality; accepting losses and admitting mistakes are essential for long-term survival in the market. Yet most of us often lack this clarity and courage, either blindly following trends and echoing others or stubbornly sticking to our opinions and refusing to admit mistakes, ultimately failing in our own obsessions. Livermore's ending is lamentable; he ultimately could not overcome his loneliness and obsessions, choosing to end his own life. However, this does not diminish the value of this book; rather, it allows us to see more clearly that the ultimate goal of trading is never the accumulation of wealth, but the perfection of oneself. Wealth is merely an accessory to trading; the true gains are the calmness, discipline, and respect learned through the ups and downs, the understanding of choices, sedimentation, and growth gained through each win and loss. "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" is not only a trading bible but also a guide to life. It tells us that whether in trading or in life, there are no shortcuts; only by maintaining a clear mind, steadfast discipline, and a respectful attitude can we stand firm amidst the ups and downs and grow through the storms. May we all draw wisdom from Livermore's story, preserving our true selves, respecting the rules, and not wasting time, seizing opportunities in favorable conditions and solidifying strength in adversity, ultimately becoming our own "winners."

The Iranian military officially announced: Due to the United States repeatedly violating commitments and continuing maritime blockades, Iran has regained full control of the Strait of Hormuz, restoring the previous strict control status, with the strait being comprehensively and tightly managed by the Iranian armed forces. Are you kidding me! Trump is playing tricks, and Iran won't play along; it's all a game of tug-of-war, and the ones who always get hurt are the retail investors in the financial market. Can this news hold up against BTC? $BTC #BTC底部信号持续验证？已突破$77000

The United States plans to unfreeze $20 billion of Iran's assets in exchange for Iran abandoning its uranium enrichment activities. The progress of the recent US-Iran talks has exceeded expectations, significantly increasing the anticipation of easing geopolitical conflicts. Affected by the cooling of geopolitical risks, crude oil prices have retreated and fallen below the $90 mark. In terms of risk assets, $BTC is leveraging the positive news from the easing geopolitical situation, making a push towards the strong resistance zone of $76,000 to $77,000 for the year. However, the overall market's medium to long-term liquidity environment has not changed substantially, but short-term sentiment has clearly recovered, providing ample upward driving force for the market. Meanwhile, some altcoins have started to move ahead of the curve, initiating a preemptive rally. The shift from a full cash position to a half cash position in the past few days now appears to be quite timely.