比特币步入高风险区间，机构资金持续撤离凸显抛压隐忧
BlockBeats 消息，5 月 26 日，区块链分析平台 Swissblock 最新报告显示，比特币正逐步滑入高风险环境，主因系机构资金持续抛售，尤其以美国现货比特币 ETF 的净流出为主要驱动因素。历史数据显示，每当该指数提示卖压在结构性层面压倒市场时，背后往往对应着机构资金的系统性派发行为。
链上数据分析机构 Glassnode 同步指出，自 5 月 7 日以来，美国比特币现货 ETF 几乎每个交易日均呈现净流出态势，机构抛售信号已持续逾两周。「此类持续性的资金外流不断向市场供给侧施加压力，而当前尚未观察到足以对冲的买盘需求」，进一步加剧了供需失衡风险。
市场层面，比特币周二因地缘政治扰动短线承压。有报道称美国对伊朗实施新一轮军事打击，尽管双方近期曾就和平协议取得进展。比特币价格应声回落约 1%，自 77,000 美元上方短暂下探至 76,500 美元附近，但整体仍维持近四个月以来的区间震荡格局。CoinEx 首席分析师 Jeff Ko 表示，尽管地缘事件可能引发短期波动，但市场焦点或仍倾向于关注美伊潜在和解进展，整体加密市场「仍处于观望状态」。
综合来看，当前比特币市场面临双重压力，一方面，现货 ETF 资金持续外流削弱了关键买盘支撑；另一方面，地缘政治不确定性放大了短期波动风险。若机构风险偏好未能边际改善，风险指数或进一步上行，需警惕技术性抛压与情绪面共振带来的调整压力。
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