ABL阿布辣2020

The cryptocurrency world in recent years can be said to have magnified human nature to the extreme. You think you are trading, but in reality, you are battling your own greed, fear, and luck. During a bull market, everyone feels like a genius, every random purchase goes up, and once leverage is applied, the world is yours. Not long ago, there were countless stories about financial freedom, but now it has turned into a reality show of forced liquidations. Huang Licheng, 335 liquidations. You read that right, it's not 3 times, not 35 times, but 335 times. This is no longer trading; this is being repeatedly educated by the market, and every lesson is very expensive. From once making 1.4 billion to now losing 1 billion, the period in between is not called volatility; it's called a plot twist in life. What's even harsher is that the account is left with only 30,000 dollars. The cruelest part of the market has never been whether you will lose, but rather that it will make you believe you won't lose when you are winning a lot. Then you slowly increase your position, amplify your leverage, boost your confidence, and in the end, take everything back in one last go. Many people laugh at such stories, but if you break down the elements of leverage, frequent trading, and emotional highs, it's really just amplifying the mistakes that most retail investors make by 100 times. The market has never lacked geniuses; what it lacks are those who can survive until the end. Some people lose because they can't understand trends, some lose because they can't control risks, but more people lose because they don't know when to stop, which is very similar to day trading in the stock market, where they always believe they will win. 335 liquidations are not just a record. It's more like a reminder that if you don't have risk control, the market will do it for you. What you earn by luck will ultimately be lost by skill. $ETH

Have you ever played the coin pusher game? Players carefully push one coin after another toward the edge of the platform, watching them stack layer by layer, getting higher and more precarious. Until at a certain moment, a key coin gently nudges, and the entire coin tower collapses instantly, clinking and clattering down. Wealth scatters everywhere; some cheer, some lament. This arcade game surprisingly resembles the perpetual contract ecosystem in the crypto world. Whenever market trends become clear, traders start "piling up coins": Long positions accumulate like pushing coins continuously to the right side of the tower. During a bullish market, retail and leveraged traders go crazy opening longs. Open interest rises steadily, funding rates remain positive. The bulls think they stand atop the pyramid of wealth, not realizing the tower is already shaking. Short positions accumulate by pushing coins to the other side. In bear or consolidation phases, whales and professional traders heavily short, expecting price pullbacks. When shorts become overly concentrated, the other side of the tower also starts to lose balance. This "coin tower" is a metaphor for the entire perpetual contract ecosystem. It is built from the stacked positions of thousands of traders. What supports it is not steel or concrete, but leverage, sentiment, and liquidity. The taller the tower, the greater the potential energy. Once a sudden price movement occurs—maybe a whale dumping, sudden negative news, or simply a technical retracement— a chain liquidation is triggered. So before the coins have piled into a tower, most experienced players won’t enter trades. This is what we call "the trend has not yet formed." At this stage, most veterans choose to watch, trade lightly to test the waters, or not enter at all. Those entering at this time are usually FOMO-driven newbies or speculative retail traders. They trade based on feelings or community sentiment, often becoming "fuel for pushing coins" for the whales, providing liquidity so veterans can harvest more easily later. $BTC #沃什确认5月15日接任美联储

Last night at 8:30 PM, the CPI was released, clearly a negative factor, but the BTC price didn't show much movement. There are a few reasons: First, much of the current liquidity is in altcoins. Just look at the recent altcoin sectors topping the gain charts to understand. Second, the market has actually been prepared for defense for a while. Over the weekend, it dropped from 82,000 to 81,000, then slowly hovered around just above 80,000. To explain with a little story: A fisherman wants to catch fish, but a child nearby throws a big stone into the pond, stirring up the water. The fish in the pond get scared and hide. Also, some of the fish have already escaped through underground streams to other ponds. At this point, as a smart fisherman, would you continue fishing or go home and get some rest? Explaining with human behavior science: The motivation behind any action is "profitability." If there’s no target in the market, would you still make a move? When hot money is not in BTC spot but speculating in altcoins, BTC’s sensitivity to a single macro negative factor decreases. Funds are "swimming in other ponds," so BTC’s volatility naturally gets diluted. With macro data heating up + Fed policy uncertainty, institutions and smart money tend to watch or operate with light positions. Without obvious "positive catalysts" (like a clear rate cut path or major good news), there won’t be large-scale entry; similarly, expected negative factors won’t trigger panic selling. It’s not that people fear the CPI, but that everyone has already dispersed their fish, waiting for the real "big catalyst."

Major Wall Street institutions' forecasts for the US April CPI show that the overall CPI year-on-year growth rate is generally expected to be between 3.7%-3.8%, and the core CPI year-on-year is mostly expected to be 2.7%-2.8%. The median forecast indicates that the overall CPI month-on-month for April is expected to rise by 0.56%, year-on-year by 3.7%, while the core CPI month-on-month is expected to rise by 0.36%, year-on-year by 2.7%. This is a rebound compared to March's overall CPI year-on-year of 3.3%, and core CPI year-on-year of 2.6%, reflecting the market's general expectation that US inflationary pressure will rise again in April. The US CPI (Consumer Price Index) is released monthly and is a core indicator for measuring inflation. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) usually releases it on the 2nd or 3rd week of each month at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which converts to 8:30 PM (Daylight Saving Time) or 9:30 PM (Standard Time) Chinese time. It is expected to be announced at 8:30 PM on May 12, 2026. The market is highly focused on the risk of "inflation returning." $BTC #美国4月CPI今晚20:30揭晓

In the wave of the digital era, Hawk cryptocurrency soars like a flying bald eagle, symbolizing freedom, power, and infinite possibilities for the future. It is not just an asset on the blockchain, but an extension of a belief— the decentralized spirit of freedom and the pursuit of a fair, open economic system. As the excitement for the 2026 FIFA World Cup heats up, the bald eagle mascot, symbolizing honor and hope, resonates with the Hawk philosophy. This is not just a cross-industry collaboration, but a new attempt to combine the spirit of sports with the digital revolution. Hawk represents not only speed and sharpness but also the determination to spread its wings on the global stage. We believe true development comes from a healthy and sustainable ecosystem. Hawk is committed to building a transparent, secure, and mutually prosperous blockchain environment where every participant can find their place in this sky. From technological innovation to community governance, every step centers on ecological balance, driving long-term value. Now, Hawkarmy is gathering supporters from around the world. This is not just a community but a collective of beliefs—fighting for freedom, flying for the future. As the bald eagle soars on the World Cup stage, you can also become part of this force. Join Hawkarmy, spread your wings with us, and witness the birth of the next era. $BNB

US Prediction Market ETF Review Hits Snag! 24 Products Face "Conflict of Interest" Due to Trump Jr.'s Advisor Role The US SEC Delays Review of 24 Prediction Market ETFs Regulators Focus on Pricing Algorithms, Probability Monitoring, and Disclosure Trump Jr.'s Advisor Role Raises Conflict of Interest Concerns in the Review In early May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed the review of 24 ETFs tracking prediction market contracts from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, requesting issuers to supplement product mechanisms and disclosure details. According to CNBC, the delay affects 24 ETFs submitted by issuers including Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares. Analysts compare this delay to the prolonged approval process of spot BTC ETFs years ago. The SEC's core inquiries focus on "how pricing algorithms translate into ETF share prices" and "how probability changes are monitored in real time." The 24 Delayed ETFs: Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares Are the Main Issuers Structure of the Delayed ETFs: Underlying Assets: Event contracts from prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket Contract Structure: Binary instruments paying $1 if a specific outcome occurs, $0 if not Themes: Elections, economic recessions, tech industry layoffs, crude oil prices, cryptocurrency trends Issuers: Bitwise Asset Management, Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares Scale: A total of 24 ETFs are currently paused at the filing review stage The core value of these ETFs is to allow retail investors to gain exposure to event contracts without directly opening accounts on Kalshi or Polymarket. For institutional investors, the ETF structure also offers a more familiar tax and custody framework. SEC's Key Questions: Pricing algorithms, real-time probability monitoring, and disclosure mechanisms. Specific Requests from the SEC to Issuers: Explain how pricing algorithms convert prediction market contracts into ETF share prices Describe how probability changes are monitored in real time and reflected in NAV Further disclose product operation mechanisms to investors Clarify the correspondence between product marketing and actual risks The SEC has not rejected these ETFs but has only extended the review period. ETF experts believe the delay is temporary and that the SEC simply requires more information; final approval remains the baseline scenario, though the timeline is extended beyond expectations. Trump Jr. Is an Advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket and Holds Investment Positions in Polymarket Political and Economic Background of the Delay: Donald Trump Jr. (Trump's son) serves as an advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket Trump Jr. also holds investment positions in Polymarket through a certain fund The SEC must address the relationship between "Trump family interests" and "regulatory independence" during the review This situation aligns with the conflict of interest provisions in the CLARITY Act reported by abmedia this week—the White House advocates that the provisions should "apply to all officials" and not target any individual specifically; the Trump family's crypto and prediction market interests are a concrete battleground in current US financial regulatory legislation. This ETF delay resembles the multi-year delay process of spot BTC ETFs—spot BTC ETFs also underwent multiple postponements in 2023 and were only approved in January 2024. The review timeline for prediction market ETFs may be similar, but the exact completion date is not public. Follow-up events to watch include the SEC's deadline for issuers' supplemental responses, the resubmission schedule of Bitwise/Roundhill/GraniteShares after revisions, and whether Trump Jr.'s relationship with the platforms becomes a public issue during the review. $WLFI $USD1

Opportunities and Risks of Web3 Smart Contract Red Packet Lotteries In today's rapid development of blockchain and Web3, smart contracts have injected new vitality into the traditional red packet culture. Using smart contracts to implement red packet lotteries not only automates fund collection, random selection, and prize distribution but also brings transparency and verifiability. It has become a common interactive method in community operations, DeFi, and GameFi sectors. Technically, this application is already quite mature. Developers can write contracts using the Solidity language combined with Chainlink VRF (Verifiable Random Function) to provide verifiable on-chain randomness, completely solving the problem of predictable random numbers in traditional blockchains. Contracts can manage fund pools, verify participant eligibility, automate lotteries, and perform instant transfers throughout the entire process. Whether it’s equal-amount red packets or random-amount "luck-based" red packets, it can be easily realized. These functions are widely applied in project airdrops, community engagement boosts, and in-game random drops. However, any new technology comes with significant risks, and Web3 red packet lotteries are no exception. First is contract security risk, which is the biggest hidden danger. Once a smart contract is deployed, it is difficult to modify. If there are vulnerabilities, reentrancy attacks, or weak randomness logic, attackers could instantly drain all funds. There have been multiple historical incidents of lottery-type contracts being hacked. Second are technical risks, including Chainlink Oracle failures, high Gas fees, as well as common front-end phishing and malicious authorization. It is recommended to participate in activities using a blank wallet or choose to pass on red packet events 🧧 $OKB #新手成长营

Claude Code Leader: Programming has already been solved by AI! Why is "/loop" the future? Boris Cherny, founder of Anthropic's Claude Code, pointed out at the AI Ascent 2026 conference that engineers have shifted from writing code by hand to orchestrating thousands of AI agents. At the AI Ascent 2026 conference hosted by Sequoia Capital on May 4, Boris Cherny, founder of Anthropic's Claude Code, dropped a line during a keynote conversation: "For me, coding is already solved." He went on to say that since 2026, he has hardly written a single line of code himself; all code is generated by models. His phone pushes dozens of PR notifications daily, "Last week, I pushed 150 PRs in one day—that was a personal record." This statement comes from a conversation video released by Sequoia Capital. For the engineers, entrepreneurs, and venture partners in the audience, the shock was not that "AI can write code"—that actually happened two years ago when Sonnet 3.5 introduced type-ahead autocomplete. The real impact lies in the fact that the very nature of "writing code" as a job has been pushed to a stage most engineers are not yet mentally prepared for. Paradigm Shift in AI Programming: From Handwriting to Commanding AI is fundamentally reshaping the essence of engineers' work. In the past, people imagined AI-assisted programming as sitting in front of an IDE using intelligent autocomplete; now, reality has far surpassed that imagination. Cherny from Anthropic pointed out that many engineers have shifted to CLI operations, using Claude Code to manage multiple sessions and hundreds to thousands of AI agents simultaneously. They no longer type code line by line but become orchestrators of an "AI engineer battalion." The most critical tool is the "/loop" command, which allows AI to automatically execute tasks on schedule: fixing PRs, monitoring CI health, collecting user feedback, etc. Engineers' work has transformed from "handcrafting features" to "designing loops that let the system run autonomously 24/7." This wave also deconstructs traditional team structures. In the future, more cross-disciplinary generalists will emerge, with product, design, finance, research, and other functions all needing the ability to have AI write code. "Not knowing how to code" is no longer an excuse but a competitive disadvantage. Within Anthropic, there is no pure handwritten code; everyone collaborates with models to form an agent network, making organizational processes a true competitive moat. Just as the printing press turned literacy from a profession into a basic skill, AI will democratize programming, with true value returning to deep domain knowledge. Although challenges remain in model alignment and legacy codebases, the engineer's role has irreversibly shifted from "writer" to "conductor." This transformation not only accelerates innovation but will also reshape the entire software industry's ecosystem. $TSLA #AI重构行业格局进行时

Straight to the point: CZ and Cathie Wood decode the underlying logic of the crypto market's strong recovery. At the critical moment of recovery after the crypto market's turbulence, a conversation between CZ (Changpeng Zhao) and Cathie Wood clearly and thoroughly outlines the macro drivers and the real movements of institutional funds behind this round of market activity. CZ begins with the macro cycle. He points out that this year, being an election year and on the eve of midterm elections, the U.S. government has a strong incentive to maintain a strong performance in the U.S. stock market to stabilize the situation. The capital heat in the stock market inevitably spills over, powerfully boosting risk assets, including the crypto market. Coupled with Bitcoin’s solid support at previous highs and the resonance of macro and industry cycles, he judges that this market recovery speed could surpass any rebound in history. Cathie Wood confirms this judgment with actual capital flow data. She states that traditional financial institutions have thoroughly studied the crypto market’s four-year cycle. They did not blindly chase highs during market euphoria but waited very patiently for correction opportunities. Now, from capital flows, it is clear that these “old money” investors are conducting unprecedented large-scale accumulation. CZ further reveals the core characteristic of institutional capital entry: extremely slow decision-making and very long holding periods. Compared to retail investors’ frequent turnover, institutions buying billions of dollars may require multiple committee approvals, taking a full month to complete. Once accumulation is done through compliant channels like ETFs, their holding periods are usually measured in years. This means massive chips are being locked in for the long term, continuously draining the market’s circulating supply, thereby building an extremely solid bottom support for asset prices. Stepping out of the short-sighted view of intraday volatility and understanding this long-term capital sedimentation logic is key to staying composed amid fluctuations. Conclusion: The greatest value of this conversation is that it reveals how the current market differs from the past: not only is there resonance between policy and cycles, but also structural entry of huge traditional financial capital. When patient and massive institutional capital begins long-term locking, the market’s underlying support has quietly changed. For investors, the important thing is not to chase every intraday rise and fall but to see clearly the flow and power of this long-term capital. In a market increasingly dominated by institutional thinking, maintaining patience and a big-picture view may be the true winning strategy in this round of recovery. $BTC #FOMC前瞻：BTC多头大举建仓

CME gap becomes the market focus, two key levels will trigger billions in liquidations The prospects for US-Iran talks have once again been overshadowed, increasing market risk aversion. On Thursday, all three major US stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones fell 0.63% to 49,596.97 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.38% to 7,337.11 points, and the Nasdaq slightly declined 0.13% to 25,806.20 points. S&P 500 call options hit a record $2.6 trillion in trading volume yesterday. Specifically, nearly 60% of S&P 500 index options traded were calls. Bank of America noted that the current S&P 500 rally is reminiscent of the late 1920s and the dot-com bubble, but pricing for tail-risk options remains low, showing a clear divergence from actual volatility. Crude oil prices plunged over 5% intraday yesterday, then sharply reversed in a V-shaped recovery triggered by news of crossfire, finally rising slightly to around $100 per barrel. Spot Brent crude even fell below near-month futures. Max Layton, head of commodities at Citigroup, stated that until a clear agreement is reached, oil prices will continue to experience volatile swings driven by news. Additionally, the offshore Chinese yuan broke above 6.80 intraday yesterday, reaching a four-year high. Market bets on rate cuts this year have dropped to 20%. Wall Street is now holding its breath ahead of the upcoming nonfarm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 62,000 jobs, a key anchor point for determining the next macroeconomic direction. Economist David Payne believes that monthly job gains of 60,000 to 80,000 are sufficient to maintain labor market stability. Bearish views: The core logic of this camp is that the recent rebound is just a bear market bull trap, and potential macro downside in US stocks will drag BTC down, with key levels breaking confirming a false breakout. Greeny: The 35% rebound from the bottom mirrors the bear market traps of 2018 and 2022, making blind bullishness extremely risky. Anabel & LB: Breaking below $80,000 and $79,600 confirms the previous rise was just a liquidity distortion, with downside risk targeting the $76,000-$74,000 range. Minga & Astronomer: Failure to reclaim $84.2k or $80.5k will establish a short-term top, with a target at the $76k monthly open. Colin Talks Crypto: Price was clearly rejected at the 200-day moving average, preparing to continue profit-taking near $84.8k. Bullish views: The bulls firmly believe that bottom-level chip rotation is very thorough, with continuous ETF inflows and technical indicator breakthroughs building momentum to challenge $100,000. John Bollinger, founder of the Bollinger Bands indicator, personally went long, pointing out that BTC has completed its first Bollinger Band upper band ($81,549) breakout on the daily chart in months. Killa: If Bitcoin can hold $78,500 (this week's open), further upside is possible. If it falls below, gradually add longs in the $74.7K-$76.3K range, with stop losses on shorts at $84K. Murphy: 440,000 BTC accumulated near $66,000, with 13.8% of chips in the $65,000-$78,000 range, building a stronger bottom structure than the previous cycle. Tom Lee: As long as BTC closes above $76,000 on the May monthly candle, achieving a rare three-month consecutive gain, the bear market will be completely over. Ali Charts: New mega whales have an average cost of $80,300, with leverage rising to 0.26 (a new high since 2025), indicating strong market risk appetite. IT Tech & MikybullCrypto: A strong breakout and hold above the $88,000-$92,000 resistance zone will make the $100,000 target inevitable. Max Trades & ctm_trader: A pullback to $75k-$76k is an excellent buying opportunity, with main targets to fill the CME gaps at $78k and $84k. Aylo: In a bear market, any Bitcoin below $70,000 (pre-2021 highs) has extremely high allocation value. $BTC #FOMC前瞻：BTC多头大举建仓

Is the new official curse a repetition of history or just a new official coming to clean up the mess? Will 2026 be a golden opportunity or a massive tsunami? Leave your comments below for discussion～ $BTC #4月ETF：三大加密资产同步净流入