Henry科崽

Freshly released CPI data interpretation, higher than the expected 0.4%. The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, and the three major US stock index futures continue to decline after the CPI data release 📉 The two-year US Treasury yield is currently up 4.4 basis points, now at 3.991%. High inflation continues to impact the global economy, which is not good news for both the US stock market and the crypto space‼️

What really matters tonight is not the CPI news itself, but how the market views the possibility of "future rate cuts" after this data is released‼️ #美国4月CPI今晚20:30揭晓 Here are three scenarios📖 for your reference, so you can react immediately when the news comes out⬇️ 1️⃣ CPI below expectations (3.7%) The market will believe inflation is still under control, so US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold will all rise📈, while the dollar and US Treasury yields will fall📉. 2️⃣ CPI meets expectations (most likely event) The market will return to a range-bound state, with US stocks continuing to advance📈 led by the AI wave, and Bitcoin consolidating at high levels. 3️⃣ CPI above expectations (extremely dangerous signal) The Fed will be extremely hawkish, the market will believe there is no chance of rate cuts this year, possibly evolving into "prolonged high interest rates," causing US stocks and Bitcoin to plummet📉, gold uncertain, and the dollar plus US Treasury yields to rise📈.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-12) Short positions can start being prepared, a major crash is imminent📉 The number of long positions keeps increasing, funding rates are rising, and a bearish divergence has appeared in the structure. I no longer expect a sharp spike upwards; I can't predict the top, so I can only make a trading plan based on the market. The best plan right now is to enter short positions early as the first batch, then wait for the market's reaction. If you enter short positions, it's recommended to focus only on the daily candlestick chart, no need to panic~ Tested and effective ❤️

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-11) Bitcoin's current trend doesn't look like it's going to drop at all; it's consolidating at a high level, and capital inflow is still increasing. In the short term, it will most likely move upward, with a target around 86000. Short-term positions can go long, with stop-loss set at the previous low each time to prevent being stopped out by a sudden spike. 86000 is also the first target for short positions, the entry point for the initial short position. For the rest, take it step by step, as there are many events happening this week that could cause significant market volatility 📈📉

Don't just focus on the K-line next week‼️ What really determines the direction of BTC, US stocks, and crude oil might be these few things⬇️ CPI, Strait of Hormuz, AI earnings reports — the global capital battle is about to begin

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-9) Lately, I've only been looking at daily and higher time frame candlestick charts, so don't try to catch long opportunities on lower time frames～ For those shorting with me above, place your stop loss just above the previous wick tip. If it breaks through, wait for a higher level to go short. If it doesn't break, you can add to your short position, continuing the rolling strategy. You just need to find a suitable high point and slowly add positions, ensuring no liquidation risk. The position to add to shorts above is around 80900, but first, we need to observe the actual situation of this small rebound.

Market Trend Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-8) No point analyzing nonsense, yesterday morning's analysis clearly stated that the current movement resembles the previous rebound 📈, short positions have already been entered, and no short-term long opportunities are expected. Just firmly hold the short positions; there is still a lot of support below since the price has been breaking through continuously. Going forward, more buyers will increase their positions because the cost-effectiveness of going long from below is maximized. This is also a meat grinder for the bulls, constantly creating long opportunities for you, then continuously breaking down 📉

Market Trend Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-7) Yesterday on the daily chart, it closed with a long upper wick, so I directly entered a first-position short‼️ The stop loss for this short is set above yesterday's daily wick tip. If it breaks above, I'll look for another position to short📉 The current movement looks very similar to the previous consolidation and upward trend. Personally, I feel it's almost at the top～ Trading Strategy: If today's daily candle closes bearish, everyone can directly enter a first-position short with the same stop loss as mine.

What? You’re telling me that because the funding rate is negative, the shorts have accumulated too much, which could cause Bitcoin to directly surge to an all-time high??? The big names are bearish; this recent rise is a classic tactic to squeeze market liquidity. A negative funding rate can indeed trigger a short-term rally, but you need to understand how long this rally can last. If it’s only due to a negative funding rate, then it’s just a tail-end bullish move～ Currently, the best position to short is around 86, entering with the first position, and then adding heavily as it goes up～📉

Analysis post. It's a bit lengthy, so those with patience can read it, and those without can check out my "plain talk" below. 1️⃣ Currently, I believe the rise is a "manufactured bull market," creating a situation of continuous highs and strong bullish sentiment to attract more capital into the market. 2️⃣ The small double bottom at 59 is not enough to support a bull reversal; a price surge to 126,000 is definitely not something that a weekly double bottom pattern can sustain.~ 3️⃣ Don't take me as a guide for bears; I'm just making trades that I believe are right. I'm not stubborn; I'm just going with the flow.